- That's so Meta
- Meta Performance Reviews, VR Update, Mark Rallies for Sam Lessin
Meta Performance Reviews, VR Update, Mark Rallies for Sam Lessin
Will META go over $500? It will need Apple's help
Ahoy Metamates! 🚢 🏴☠️
🆕 Meta Performance Reviews Are Upon Us. Here’s what I’ve heard:
High pressure for managers to downgrade this cycle
PMs most vulnerable to cuts, especially post Google saga last week
Reviews being treated like a slow layoff
Managers who don’t aggressively calibrate may be on the chopping block themselves
TLDR: We’re back to pre-COVID Meta. Nature is healing 🍃🍃🍃.
In other news…
Not sure how your week went - but Mark Zukerberg & co had a last minute push to get Sam Lessin elected to the Harvard Board of Overseers. With 3000 votes needed to secure a nomination and basically just 3 days to go, all hands were on deck, including a personal appeal from Mark and Priscilla themselves:
Ngl, I’m bad at screenshots
If you happen to be a Harvard alum, I genuinely think Sam is worth voting for - more info here:https://www.samforoverseer.com/
The Virtual Reality Update
Look, I game like a beast - there’s no one more invested than me in making VR mainstream because, frankly, I’d shred. But as an investment thesis? It’s been left for dead by analysts. In fact, FRL spend remains the key downside risk to META stock.
In this issue:
Is Apple going to end the VR winter?
Meta’s AR/VR is mostly meh right now
Let’s pour one out for Snapchat
Headsets vs consoles - the future of gaming
Bytedance’s purchase of Pico - Meta’s mini me
Quest sales are up and to the right - but the buyer is your mom
AR Glasses haven’t worked - here’s why
Can mixed reality push Meta’s stock > $500? Maybe
VR/AR will change commerce forever if we can get over the somewhat tedious barrier for entry. Will Apple finally tilt the scales?
It’s Still A Minuscule Market - That Meta Owns
Cutting to the chase - as of 2022:
28M VR headsets in use worldwide ( vs 6.5B smartphones)
71.5% of those are sold by Meta (source: Barclays)
66% increase in activated devices expected by end of ‘24 (s:Newegg)
Meta FRL spend to date: $60B
Essentially, while there might be a ton of talk around HTC, Magic Leap, Snap Glasses (whatever they were called), etc - everyone is a bit player compared to Meta when it comes to mixed reality. Mark owns this town. And while the market is small, it’s growing consistently.
The problem with this market: it has no clear use case. It’s easy to imagine how this would monetize if it worked. It’s hard to make it actually work.
Want to see META cross $500? Pray Apple shreds
Meta gets instant validation from Apple rolling out a competing product. And, if everything goes well, it’s also a chance to turbo boost META stock and unlock spend on FRL, if it’s evident there’s real competition.
The flip side? An Apple fail could kill FRL forever.
Here’s why this is crucial for the stock:
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